Private: July 2013 Visa Bulletin (and Beyond)
The July 2013 Visa Bulletin contains good news for those waiting in line under the worldwide employment-based third category (professionals, skilled and unskilled workers). The category advances another 4 months in July. The waiting time is now 4 1/2 years, down from 6 years just a few months ago. In contrast, the India EB-3 priority date advances only 2 weeks. The EB-3 category for the Philippines moves ahead only 1 week.
The worldwide EB-2 category remains current (no backlog), but while EB-2 PRC advances 3 weeks, EB-2 India does not move at all.
The Senate CIR bill would eliminate all per-country EB quotas. Write your Senators and Representatives now, and ask them to support this important modification to our broken immigration system!
The worldwide family-based preference 2A category moves forward 4 months and the 2B category advances almost 4 months. Other worldwide family-based categories advance between 3 and 5 weeks. Family categories for the Philippines advance somewhat faster especially the F1 category which sprints ahead 6 months. Family-based waiting times for Mexico advance significantly for both the 2A and the 2B categories.
The charts below tell the story in more detail.
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FAMILY CATEGORIES
| Categories | Worldwide | China (PRC) | Mexico | Philippines |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 6-1-06 | 6-1-06 | 8-22-93 | 7-1-00 |
| 2A | 10-8-11 | 10-8-11 | 9-1-11 | 10-8-11 |
| 2B | 11-1-05 | 11-1-05 | 11-1-93 | 12-22-02 |
| 3rd | 10-1-02 | 10-1-02 | 4-22-93 | 11-22-92 |
| 4th | 5-22-01 | 5-22-01 | 9-22-96 | 12-15-89 |
EMPLOYMENT CATEGORIES
| Categories | Worldwide | China (PRC) | India | Mexico | Philippines |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | Current | Current | Current | Current | Current |
| 2nd | Current | 8-8-08 | 9-1-04 | Current | Current |
| 3rd | 1-1-09 | 1-1-09 | 1-22-03 | 1-1-09 | 10-1-06 |
| Unskilled | 1-1-09 | 3-22-04 | 1-22-03 | 1-1-09 | 10-1-06 |
| 4th | Current | Current | Current | Current | Current |
| Religious | Current | Current | Current | Current | Current |
| 5th | Current | Current | Current | Current | Current |
STATE DEPARTMENT PREDICTIONS
VISA AVAILABILITY FROM AUGUST to OCTOBER
FAMILY-sponsored categories (potential monthly movement)
Worldwide dates:
F1: Up to five weeks
F2A: Will become “Current” at some point during the next month.
F2B: Four to seven weeks
F3: Three to five weeks
F4: Three to five weeks
EMPLOYMENT-based categories (potential monthly movement)
Employment First: Current
Employment Second:
Worldwide: Current
China: Up to two months
| India: | At this time it appears that the availability of “otherwise unused” Employment Second preference numbers will allow for movement of this cut-off date in August, at which point it will advance to January 2008. It is expected that such movement will generate heavy new applicant demand, primarily by those who are upgrading their status from the Employment Third preference category. A sustained level of heavy demand could impact the cut-off date at some point during fiscal year 2014. |
Employment Third:
| Worldwide: | It will not advance until October. This cut-off date has advanced 18 months during the past three months. Such rapid movement can be expected to generate a significant amount of new demand, with the impact not being felt for three to five months. Therefore, the cut-off date will be held until it can be determined what level of demand is to be expected, and whether it is likely to be sustained. |
China: No additional movement
India: Up to three weeks
Mexico: No additional movement
Philippines: Up to two weeks
Employment Fourth: Current
Employment Fifth: Current
The above projections for the Family and Employment categories are for what is likely to happen during each of the next few months based on current applicant demand patterns. Readers should never assume that recent trends in cut-off date movements are guaranteed for the future, or that “corrective” action will not be required at some point in an effort to maintain number use within the applicable annual limits. The determination of the actual monthly cut-off dates is subject to fluctuations in applicant demand and a number of other variables. Unless indicated, those categories with a “Current” projection will remain so for the foreseeable future.
